How The Intelligence Community Has Regressed

Posted on by Rupert Wieloch

There is a lot of news this week about International Security, but none of it is good. What links the wars in Ukraine (and Russia), the Middle East and British Defence Strategy? In a word – Regression. Putin’s refusal to meet Zelenskyy as the war stagnates; Trump’s continued miscalculation about Iran; and the Treasury’s refusal to fully fund the re-equipment of British military forces are three related themes that have been running through most of 2026, but the Media have been very poor at bringing fresh stories to the public about important issues for the country, such as the failure of Ajax to meet its in service date. However, rather than dwell on these tired stories, I thought I would complete my triptych of intelligence blogs because I was struck by what C had to say yesterday.

Listening to the Chief of Britain’s Secret Intelligence Service between 2020 and 2025 on Test Match Special, there were five observations that caught my attention. The first heartening statement was that the intelligence relationship between the USA and UK is in good shape despite political differences. The second, which I thoroughly agree with, was his suggestion that now is probably not the most dangerous period since World War II, quoting the Cuban Missile Crisis and the early 1980s as being closer to Armageddon. He qualified this by doubting whether President Putin was thinking of nuclear options for Ukraine (he would know better than I).

However, it was his other assertions that really opened my eyes. The admission about the ineffectiveness of the UN Security Council was not surprising in itself, but the fact that there seems to be no British intelligence efforts to strengthen the international order does surprise me. The final comment that pricked my ear was his confession that the CIA and our Secret Intelligence Services were embedded deeply in each others work at all levels. Effectively, he was admitting that Britain’s intelligence community has regressed so much that it is no longer independent.

Now we know from Ralph Peters that the USA loves instability in other countries and that it regularly works to undermine governments that it disagrees with; we also know that politically the USA opposes constitutional monarchies. If that does not sway the argument for an independent British intelligence community then the economic case should. At the moment there is absolutely no military threat to Britain from China; however Beijing and Washington are military adversaries in the Pacific and intense rivals to be the top economic power in the World. In this current volatile climate, we need to be very careful about allowing MI6 to undermine our government’s trade options by allowing the CIA access to our political thinking.

Ajax In The News Again

North Atlantic Treaty Conference

Posted on by Rupert Wieloch

The Conference in Munich this weekend that has attracted World Leaders to speak about their security concerns and in particular the North Atlantic partnership, is not in fact a NATO conference. That happened the day before in a low-key affair in Brussels between most of the NATO Ministers of Defence (notably Pete Hesgeth, the US secretary of War, did not attend).

The most interesting aspect of these past five days is the press conference given by the NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte on Wednesday evening. After his introduction, he was quizzed by 14 different news and media outlets, including some big hitters such as the Wall Street Journal and AFP. Two Russian News in Exile reporters asked questions as did two that broadcast in Ukraine and journalists from Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Germany, Turkey and Japan. The only interest from London was Reuters’ Brussels based European Affairs Editor, who asked about the rebranding of NATO’s northern flank activities into “Arctic Sentry”.

Understandably, the main undercurrent of the conference was Rutte’s perspective of President Trump’s recent announcements, including when and by how much the USA will reduce its footprint in Europe. However, the greatest challenge to the Secretary General was the Japanese reporter, who asked specifically about the Chinese threat to the Arctic (which it does not border).

It may appear that a lot has changed since the US Secretary of Defence, Jim Mattis gave a joint press conference in Brussels with the then Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, exactly nine years ago today and said thank you for “the warm welcome back to my second home”. However, in March 2003, the UK MoD published a document that suggested a number of possible shocks, including a “Future US administration withdraws co-operation from international bodies such as the UN and NATO”.

We were warned!