I was asked yesterday whether I thought the new Prime Minister would change the Secretary of State for Defence when he appoints his first Cabinet later this month.
It is certainly true that top Whitehall Mandarins do not like it when a Secretary of State knows more than they do about their business. So it is very unusual for a regular army officer, who has commanded soldiers on operations and held Grade 2 staff appointments, to become Secretary of State for Defence. Not only will the Civil Servants, Cabinet Office and Treasury be cautious, but the Navy, Air Force and Intelligence Services, who compete for Security funding, will be suspicious that Dan will favour his alma mater.
Given this situation and the fact the new PM will wish to reward those who paved the way for his arrival (including the previous Defence Secretary), it would seem that Dan’s days are numbered. And yet…
Defence is not a vote-winner and no longer as important as it was fifteen years ago. It is in a mess both in terms of funding and capability to meet its remit. It needs a root and branch overhaul, so it is unlikely there will be many ambitious politicians eager to take on the role. More importantly, my sources tell me that Dan passed his first important test at the NATO Summit in Ankara and achieved a strengthening of support to Ukraine and an improvement in Defence Industry deals.
The other important factor is that the arrival of the new resident of 10 Downing Street will coincide with the Summer Recess until September. In some ways that is a good time to take of a new job because parliamentary scrutiny is less. However, it could equally be argued that over the summer, we need someone running Defence who knows what they are talking about, so for me, Dan’s the Man.
Rupert Wieloch 