The American announcement that the US-Iran deal will be signed on Sunday is a bold assertion given the hurdles to that happening. To my mind, it is symbolic of the difference between the two countries and Washington’s lack of understanding about the devolved nature of the Iranian chain of command.
I have written about this before because it happened in Bosnia in 1995. The West would negotiate a deal with the Bosnian leaders in Sarajevo and then be surprised when the agreement was ignored by the so-called warlords in the provinces. This is not necessarily a characteristic of a failed state, but rather a clever mechanism to ensure its strength is spread to ensure its survival as an independent country. One of the finest examples was in France during World War II when the Resistance did not allow Germany a peaceful occupation.
I spent two years interpreting probabilities when I was Head of Reliability in the Ministry of Defence. In my view, the likelihood of a deal is high, but the chances of it happening today are less than 50%. Will this mean peace in the Middle East? One can only look at historical examples to answer that question and if you look at that data, one might say with some confidence that the percentage is low and conclude this deal is unlikely to last.
The UN Is Watching For A Peace Deal
Rupert Wieloch 