Rupert Wieloch

The news that some European leaders have vetoed a US proposal for NATO to provide direct military support to Ukraine in their border dispute with Russia reminds me of another important connection with Libya.

In Churchill’s Abandoned Prisoners, I wrote that Ukraine’s geography made “the establishment of defence in depth almost impossible”. With its open countryside lending itself to “outflanking and turning movements”, I went on to explain how the new Polish army discovered this after it captured Kiev in May 1920. The Red Army was already very adept at the tactics which would defeat Hitler’s army and nearly surrounded the Poles by counter-attacking on the northern route from the Dvina to the Dnieper. The effect was recorded by the British Prime Minister’s envoy, Sir Maurice Hankey, who commented that: “The ill-advised advance to Kiev and the inevitable retreat have reacted disastrously on this young and inexperienced [Polish] army”.

The connection with Libya is that the desert area that witnessed the toing and froing of the Allied and Axis tank formations in World War II proved to be a similar battle ground to the vast steppe-like open plains in Ukraine. Some towns and cities in Cyrenaica exchanged hands five times between January 1941 and December 1942 because Eastern Libya needed either to be fully occupied or totally abandoned since it offered few natural defensive barriers.

NATO had to relearn this military reality during the Libyan revolution in 2011 and one hopes that it will not make the same mistake in Ukraine in 2022.

For the past five years there has been talk about a United Nations Peacekeeping operation in the Donbass region of Eastern Ukraine. Unfortunately, the Kremlin’s vision of this mission is very different to the view from Kiev. Their historical animosity was explained to me by the Ukrainian attaché in Tripoli, who remained in Libya throughout the 2011 revolution, together with their doctors and medics working for the Libyan people.

Libya has some of the largest reserves of natural gas in the world. If European countries had not pulled out in 2012, they could have established a gas pipeline that would have been much cheaper than the one laid from Russia that is increasing European dependency on Russia. The Kremlin knows this and it is one of the reasons why they are helping Khalifa Haftar to disrupt the West’s efforts at establishing a democratic country and reintegrating Libya into the international community.

The G7’s threats of economic sanctions on Moscow over their build-up of their armed forces on the Ukrainian border sounds pretty hollow because there is little evidence that they are willing to deploy capable military boots on the ground (not a shop window force) to back up their rhetoric. Unfortunately, their record in Afghanistan, Syria and Libya provides little confidence that the West’s strategy and commitment is capable of outmatching Putin. A change in foreign affairs is needed now.

This week has seen progress with the US$1.5 Billion project to develop a deep water container port at Marsa Susah. Known in ancient times as Apollonia, this was one of five cities in Cyrenaica established in the seventh century BC by King Battus that made up Pentapolis. It was the port used by the British archaeologists, Smith and Porcher, during their excavations at Cyrene one hundred and sixty years ago and it was where Geoffrey Keyes was landed by submarine on his way to being awarded a posthumous Victoria Cross, leading the failed Special Forces attempt to capture Erwin Rommel in November 1941.

This project has been on the table for a long time and is critical to re-booting the Libyan economy. It is envisaged that Susah will serve as the main port of entry for goods into Libya by sea. The natural self-dredging harbour with a sea depth of 18 meters will be constructed in four-phases and will primarily focus on container processing, grain handling and other bulk cargoes. With the signing of the master agreement this week, the beginning of construction is in sight, although probably not until 2023.

See Liberating Libya for Smith and Porcher’s life among the Bedouin and the controversy surrounding the death of Geoffrey Keyes.

The Libyan elections are heating up. Following the deadline for the Presidential nominations closing on 24 November, the electoral commission has been busy removing many of the 98 candidates from the list. Saif al-Islam Gadhafi has been disqualified for his previous conviction, whereas the former Prime Minister and Human Rights Lawyer, Ali Zidan, lost his place for continuing to hold more than one nationality.

There is an appeal process and the UN is worried that the court deciding Saif’s case, in the south-west city of Sebha, was raided by an armed group soon after he submitted his appeal.

Meanwhile, the Head of the UN Support Mission In Libya, Jan Kubis has resigned his post claiming that the headquarters must return from Tunisia and re-establish itself in Tripoli. With less than a month to go to the elections, this is a brave move and is very significant because it could help reintegrate Libya into the international community. However, there are plenty of risks attached to this relocation since there are still many internal and external actors who do not want to see the UN succeed and so the Mission will have to drastically improve its security to remain for the long term.

There is an irony in Saif al-Islam Gadhafi registering as a presidential candidate in Libya ten years to the week that he was captured near the Nafusa mountains. Meeting the the lawyers and elders outside the Zintan prison, I was informed that Saif would not be released to the International Criminal Court, but little did I suspect that he would survive a decade, let alone gather enough support to return to the political arena.

Although he has drawn the headlines, there are in fact six other registered candidates, all of whom were born in Cyrenaica (Eastern Libya), or Misratah. They include the military leader, Khalifa Hafter, a senior officer in the revolution who was snubbed by the transitional government in 2012, as well as a respected scholar and distinguished political leaders.

Inevitably, we will see a great deal of misinformation and interference in the next month as external actors promote their preferred candidates and denigrate their rivals. Given that Libya remains in the top ten countries for proven oil reserves, there is much to play for as we approach the elections on the 70th anniversary of independence. For more comment on the future of the country, see Chapter 16 and Jason Pack’s Afterword in Liberating Libya.

If you were wondering why the Heads of State of France, Germany and Italy (and the Vice President of the USA) were not at COP26 in Glasgow on Friday, it is because they were attending the International Conference For Libya in Paris. The declaration that was published at the end of the conference has received scant attention in the media, but it is probably the best work on Libya since the Pandemic began because it deals equally with the political, security and economic lines of activity, as well as highlighting the humanitarian needs. However, just like the COP26 statement, it is not the talking, but the doing that will make the difference; and the first doing is the free and fair elections that will take place on the 70th anniversary of Libyan independence next month.

Meanwhile, I was delighted to be able to pay tribute to those who gave their lives in World War II in Libya during a wide ranging discussion with Dan Snow for his History Hit website. The interview is available for free as a podcast here https://play.acast.com/s/dansnowshistoryhit/colonelgaddafiandlibya

Thinking about Armistice Day and Remembrance Sunday this week, my focus has been on commemorating the 10,000 Allied casualties from World War II who were killed in Libya.

Hundreds of thousands of British citizens have a grandparent or a family relation who are buried in the four Commonwealth War Cemeteries at Tobruk, Knightsbridge, Benghazi and Tripoli. Perhaps the most iconic of these is the burial ground for those who died during the nine month siege of Tobruk, which was as much a symbol of defiance as Dunkirk and the Battle of Britain because it was the first occasion that the German Blitzkrieg war machine was defeated in battle. The fortress, as it was known, was relieved in November 1941, when six Victoria Crosses were awarded to British and Irish soldiers (four of them posthumous). The many acts of incredible bravery are covered in Part 3 of Liberating Libya, including the near-suicidal advance on foot of the Black Watch, who were “played-in” by Pipe Major Rab Roy against Rommel’s well-sited artillery and machine guns.

For people who are reluctant to pay tribute to soldiers who gave their lives for today’s freedoms, it is worth remembering the 270 innocent people killed when Pan Am Flight 103 exploded over Lockerbie, which is also in the news again. With a major international conference on Libya beginning this week in Paris, I am sure the continued pursuit of those responsible for the murder of PC Yvonne Fletcher and the bombing 33 years ago will be highlighted more by the Media than the 80th anniversary of the Relief of Tobruk, but they are all part of the same Anglo-Libyan tapestry that deserves our attention.

This has been a difficult week when we have seen a lot of talk about Climate Change by activists, who have lectured us about our bad behaviour, but have failed to come up with workable alternatives, or invented a small battery that can help to wean us off Fossil Fuels.

Meanwhile, the media has covered ugly stories that put the armed forces in an poor light, such as the Kenya murder allegations and the ban on serving soldiers carrying Dennis Hutchings’ coffin.

Few media outlets bothered to cover the operational honours list that was published on Friday, so I wish to pay tribute to Lieutenant Colonel Martin Windsor. He was responsible for the logistic support to 14 operations across 11 different African nations from Somalia to Mali and was awarded a Queen’s Commendation for his outstanding leadership and foresight.

Africa is suffering some of the most catastrophic consequences of rising global temperatures and the illegal migration that continues to flow through countries such as Libya are having a destabilizing effect in Europe. Isn’t it about time that the media informed us about the government’s strategy for Africa, including the different UK operations across this fragile continent and the good work of British soldiers on our behalf?

The civil case being brought by a retired police officer and funded by the Police Federation against the Libyan man allegedly thought to have murdered Yvonne Fletcher in St James’s Square, London in April 1984 will open a can of worms for the government next month.

The determined anti-terrorist police who have pursued the perpetrators of this crime for 37 years, gathering evidence in the UK and in Libya are livid that their criminal investigation was dropped by the government in 2017 and are now seeking retribution. On the one side, former government sources have described Saleh Ibrahim Mabrouk as an important “agent of influence” who was protected by the British Government when he moved back to Britain in 2009. On the other side, a former British ambassador and the head of MI6 between 1999 and 2004 have claimed that Mabrouk was not a “big fish”.

This was not the only questionable trade in the murky world of the Anglo-Libyan intelligence alliance after 9/11, which involved illegal renditions and billion dollar oil deals. For those who wish to learn more about this, I have, with the help of three British ambassadors, covered the rapprochement after the Lockerbie trial and the atmosphere of distrust within the joint investigative team that worked for a time in Tripoli in my new book, Liberating Libya.

The devastating death of Jethro Watson-Pickering in a Warrior fighting vehicle on Salisbury Plain on Friday has saddened everyone in the military community, but the tragic accident should not be used by those seeking to dilute the army’s capability as an excuse to make further cuts.

Throughout my time in the army, people on the touchline tried to lower the standards of training. Sometimes this was for politically correct reasons, so that lower grade applicants could reach the graduation threshold, but often it was because behind-the-scenes accountants wished to impose a moratorium on activity to save money.

There are some very hard choices being discussed in the Ministry of Defence at this moment. Unfortunately, with a Royal Navy Chief of Defence Staff (and Chief of Joint Operations), land capabilities are behind maritime and air power. The questions doing the rounds are: should we reduce the numbers of soldiers (and commandos), walk away from the army’s premier equipment project (Ajax), or dilute the highest level of training for war (tank to tank fighting)?

When this sort of discussion was held in the past, I reminded the audience of Kofi Anan’s thoughts as the United Nations Secretary General: “In Eastern Slavonia, we deployed a force of heavily mechanised infantry and helicopter gunships. We went in with such strength that we didn’t have to use force and we successfully fulfilled the mandate.” Or, as a senior officer exclaimed in the 1980s, “Clout, Don’t Dribble!”

Effective deterrence and conflict prevention require credible land forces, not shop-window dressing, so we must resist the Machiavellian plotting against the army and save our soldiers.