I have a huge amount of respect for the earnest and hard working staff officers who work in military headquarters and secret intelligence services, but they have an Achilles heel which has been exposed in the current Iran War with fatal consequences.
In my experience, officers fall into two main categories; operators and observers. The operators play the game, get mud under their finger nails and make decisions based on experience and reality. Observers sit on the touchline and provide commentary and advice based on theoretical knowledge. Of course, like all generalisations, there are many cross-overs and exceptions that prove the rule, but so many times I have heard flawed interpretations by J2 (an acronym for the Joint Intelligence Staff Branch) of what is happening on the ground.
So what has happened since the cease-fire was announced in early April? Of course, there has been some diplomatic progress with the USA and Iran exchanging demands through intermediaries. There have also been limited cease-fire contraventions by both sides. In the meanwhile, both sides have been building capacity for further strikes, with the US focusing on options to raid and seize part of Iranian territory through daring special forces operations, as well as their targeting of Tehran’s elite leaders.
And this where the J2 flaw is at its worst (and has been for more than one hundred years). The assumption is that a Capital City runs the country and controls its security services in the provinces. However, as we have seen in the Balkans in the 1990s and Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya and Syria in the 2000s, it is the hard-nosed warlords and well-sponsored militias who control freedom of movement and what people do in the outland. The failure to engage with regional power has scuppered so many Western military interventions and made mugs of politicians who predict early victory.
Having criticised the J2 boys and girls in this post, I will balance the books tomorrow and highlight one of their great successes (albeit controversial) of the past 25 years.
Chief Warlord In Bosnia
Rupert Wieloch 