Ben Barry at the International Institute of Strategic Studies has produced an excellent brief on the next steps of the Russian campaign in Ukraine. Ben, who I know well from our Bosnia postings, wrote a hard hitting internal report on the war in Iraq that was never published and is not afraid of telling it as it is.
The detail in his report about Russian equipment confirms what I witnessed in 2017. I also agree with his assessment that when the Russians move away from urban centres, they will use more artillery and air power against the defending forces, as they elevate the campaign from a “special military operation” to a “local war”. In 1942, General Montgomery described these same tactics, that he used at El Alamein, as “crumbling away” the enemy’s capabilities. It is only a matter of time…
We have been getting rid of Britain’s conventional land forces and not replacing them with anything as capable as the latest Russian hardware. The reality is that prioritising “Cyber” capabilities has made us extremely vulnerable and completely reliant on other nations for our own defence. If we are serious about stopping Putin in his tracks, we must deliver on programmes such as the Ajax light tank that was supposed to replace our dated Scimitars five years ago and reinstate the armoured training programme that is required to build a capability that can match Putin’s army.
Rupert Wieloch 