Uncategorized

On Monday and last Wednesday, experts at RUSI counter terrorism discussions highlighted the likelihood that an attack on an iconic target would get through.  Coincidence?

https://www.waterstones.com/book/belfast-to-benghazi/rupert-wieloch/9781861515667

The British ambassador, Peter Millett, flew to Benghazi after the Libyan National Army recaptured the oil facilities at Ras Lanuf to meet its commander-in-chief, Khalifa Hafterat.  According to a high-ranking LNA source, Millett regretted that much had been said about the UK’s negative role in Libya.  It’s time to reopen the British Embassy in Tripoli to improve perceptions.

 

The Italian government is negotiating a deal with Niger – the main transit country for migrants travelling from the Horn of Africa through Libya to Europe.  Controlling the flow from the main portal of Agadez will make a significant difference and reinforce the EU naval operation in the Mediterranean.  Border Security in the ungoverned and porous Sahel was one of the ten strategic risks discussed in Belfast to Benghazi.  See pages 277 -287 for the others:

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Belfast-Benghazi-Untold-Challenges-War/dp/1861515669

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres met the head of the Libyan Presidency Council, Faiez Serraj, at the Human Rights meeting in Geneva yesterday.  Guterres said the UN would continue to do all it could to further Libyan attempts to find a political compromise after Serraj admitted Libya was guilty of the torture of unarmed civilians.  See pages 262 to 277 of Belfast to Benghazi for more on the UN and Human Rights abuses in Libya.

https://www.waterstones.com/book/belfast-to-benghazi/rupert-wieloch/9781861515667

Ben Farmer in the Daily Telegraph reports the Defence Secretary’s tardy warning to Putin about Libya, but Russia stayed in Tripoli when the West withdrew.  This photograph shows the foreign military advisors with the Chief of the Armed Forces after the revolution, including the Russian and Ukraine contingents.  See Belfast to Benghazi page 279 for more missed opportunities.  www.amazon.co.uk/Belfast-Benghazi-Untold-Challenges-War/dp/1861515669

In a BBC interview this afternoon, Laura Maxwell asked me about the most intriguing North Atlantic Council meeting since 9/11.  The US Security relationship with Russia is the most antagonistic since the Cold War at the same time that the US President has the best relationship with the Russian President in living memory.  This irony has the potential to cloud decision-making at a time when the West needs clarity.  If NATO splits, there will only be one winner…

After attacking EU proposals to send migrants back to Libya, Martin Kobler is to be replaced as UN Special Representative of the Secretary General by US-educated, former Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad.  He will have his work cut out trying to implement a Libyan Political Agreement that is widely seen as broken and unimplementable.  More help needed…

For UN missed opportunities in Libya, see page 262 of Belfast to Benghazi: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Belfast-Benghazi-Untold-Challenges-War/dp/1861515669

Yesterday, we heard an ominous pronouncement from the Derna Mujahidine Shura Council against the head of the Government of National Accord, Faiez Serraj, and the commander of the Libyan National Army, Khalifa Hafter.  The voice of devout Libyans must be represented in any peace talks and the Grand Mufti is the spiritual leader best placed to do this.  See pages 277-282 of Belfast to Benghazi for the security issues preventing demobilisation, disarmament and reintegration of the Thuwaar in 2011:

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Belfast-Benghazi-Untold-Challenges-War/dp/1861515669

We are all thankful that there were no casualties in the Libyan hijack today.  This reminds us of the connection between the parlous security in the Sahara and the Mediterranean littoral.  For analaysis of the  Fezzan and its capital, Sebha, where Muammar Gadhafi stored his nuclear yellow cake and the British military team was attacked in 2012, see page 283 of Belfast to Benghazi.