Author: Rupert Wieloch

At the beginning of June, I presciently posted about the possibility of riots and the similarities with the situation in England in 1830. Unfortunately, my warning was not heeded and this week, we have seen an ugly reminder of what lies under the surface in society.

The five reasons for the riots, which echo those of 1830, are: climate uncertainty; cost of living crisis; technology alienation; immigration; and an out of touch political elite. Sadly, any one of these can act as a trigger for public disturbances in the current environment.

The reaction by the new government is also similar to the Earl Grey’s government in 1830 – use the judiciary to deter further unrest. In the case of the Swing Riots, the government rapidly assembled a Grand Assize in Winchester, executed a couple of rioters and transported the leaders of the movement to Australia. Lord John Russell eventually pardoned these men in 1836 and some, like Joseph Mason, returned to their families in England, but the deterrence did not last too long because the Chartist movement took up the reins of the 1830 radicals and stirred up more trouble in the following decade.

My new book, Where East Meets West, includes a section about the 1830 disturbances, which due to William Cobbett’s energetic correspondent, Enos Diddams, focused on the Dever Valley. It is a celebration of nature’s gifts in this part of Hampshire, set against the wider historic events in Britain and the World. With Forewords by HM Lord Lieutenant and the BBC series director of Blue Planet and an After word by a renowned Times journalist, it links to the University of Winchester’s English Project, which is building to the bicentenary commemoration of the Swing Riots and Grand Assize. The book will be available in September, from P&G Wells, or please DM for advance copies.

In December 2022, I wrote about a US prisoner swap with Russia, highlighting the history of Prisoner Exchanges, since the first treaty between the West and Soviet Russia signed in February 1920.

I am so pleased for Evan Gershkovich and the other prisoners released from jails in Russia. His trumped up charges were in direct contrast to the heinous crimes of Vadim Krasikov, who was serving a life-sentence in Germany for carrying out an assassination in Berlin. However, given the situation in Ukraine and the Middle East, we cannot be too moralistic about the reasons for imprisonment, but merely thankful that these men, women and children have been freed from unfair incarceration.

Unfortunately, their anguish is not yet over because the process of debriefing by the CIA and other intelligence agencies will be a long and stressful. Evan has already received a rapturous welcome back by the Wall Street Journal, and I really hope that he is able to put the trauma behind him and return to his writing, like Francis McCullagh and Margueritte Harrison who suffered a similar ordeal one hundred years ago.

Francis McCullagh and Margueritte Harrison – Irish and American Journalists imprisoned in Moscow in 1920

I intended to post about the Chief of the Army’s Land Warfare Conference this week, but the news about the wildfires in North America have taken priority. Every time I see the tragic consequences of bush fires around the world I feel deeply for those who have lost their homes and the devastated habitats. Australians have been particularly badly hit, but there is nothing like knowing a place for the effects to touch the soul.

Forty-two tears ago, I spent six weeks in Alberta, with my troops on the Prairie and in the Rockies. We had the most wonderful time on tank manoeuvres and canoeing down the Athabasca River and crossing glaciers in Puffa coats. We made friends in lots of strangely named places like Medicine Hat and Rocky Mountain House, as well as Calgary and Banff, but the best nights were in Jasper, where we received the full Moose and Bear Country experience.

This profound connection has kept with me all these years and so I am shedding a tear for the people of Jasper today and sending them my deep condolences for their losses. Knowing how bitter the winter can be, I am hoping they can restore the town’s infrastructure before the Fall.

Alberta in Happier Times

Like many families, we were seriously affected by the IT meltdown this week that caused chaos in the travel industry, panic in the banking sector and anxiety in the NHS. The botched CrowdStrike update has once again put our reliance on modern technology in the spotlight, but there are many ways to ensure the effects of such a collapse do not lead to total systematic paralysis.

In 2001, I was part of the original programme that identified the risks associated with globalisation and this scenario was high up on the list of possible events that we considered. In designing any software programme, the requirements manager should always ensure that the intellectual property that went into the project is maintained safely and that there is a reversionary mode incorporated in the platform.

We are very good at ensuring our aircraft do not drop out of the sky when there is a glitch, so why do we not put the same effort into human processes? It is not all about imagination and costs; there has to be well-established protocols that are familiar and practised on a regular basis. Time, as ever, is the key resource, but this was NOT an act of nature, so there are no excuses for poor preparation.

The NATO Conference in Washington this week was inevitably overshadowed by the recent elections in Britain and France and the latest Presidential News. It was nevertheless disappointing for commentators that no major initiative was announced to mark the 75th anniversary of its founding.

Ultimately, this is the only credible organisation that can deter Putin’s Russia and protect vulnerable countries from being “picked off” one by one. Talking about expenditure is a complete cop-out because it is military capability, as in high readiness brigades, ships and aircraft, which will earn the respect of our adversaries, not theoretical budgets.

Too often NATO’s members have suggested that other Allies will fill their gaps for them, but in a crisis, each country will look to their own before supporting another Member. We need to get back to counting numbers and matching our potential adversaries with a coherent, long term strategy – as we did twenty years ago.

It will be very interesting to observe how the new government in London deals with the problems of Defence and Security. In the case of British Foreign Policy and Economics, the cabinet will wish to be seen as stable and predictable, so it seems it has been elected on the basis of different people, but similar policies i.e. “change, but no change”. It is certainly the case that historically, Labour Governments have not made dramatic cuts to Defence and I am hopeful this will be the case in the next five years.

The first tests for the new Secretary of Defence will be at Budget time and when he meets his American counterpart. He will need to demonstrate that he can win the difficult argument with the Treasury and that he supports our main Ally, despite a big difference in the approach to the Middle East. I expect there will be a close alignment on Ukraine and Russia, but notwithstanding MI6 paranoia, we will not be quite so adjacent with the US about China. The key issue though will be credible military capabilities. To be taken seriously by the Pentagon, the government will have to put its “money where its mouth is” and a good beginning would be to fund a replacement for our aging tank fleet.

We Need A New Tank

On Armed Forces Day, the political spotlight fell on what the Party Leaders said about veterans in the run up to the election. As ever, the media focused on money and social issues: homelessness; mental health; and housing for soldiers’ families. However, these concerns miss the most important point of all: how will a future government use the Armed Forces?

Most veterans are very stoic about their lives and accept the situation they find themselves in with grace and dignity. They certainly do not relish being used as political pawns and nor do they enjoy seeing the British Armed forces being diminished and becoming insignificant in world affairs.

If there is one thing that I would like to see the Government change, it is the attitude of school teachers, who are ignorant about what the Services offer and put off potential recruits with their negative mantra about life (and duty) as a soldier, sailor or pilot. My second request would be to stop thinking only about Ceremonial Duties in London and Special Forces operations and rebuild the armed forces to the capability level they were at before 9/11, when we had a fortnight-long Royal Tournament, rather than a single armed forces day. Only then will our adversaries (and Allies) take us seriously again.

Two media storms of interest this week – the Special Forces Saga and the Farage Non-Revelation.

The Director of Special Forces (DSF) has a unique position in Government. He controls what in other countries are known as the Republican Guard i.e. an elite force that is dedicated to serve the National Security Council’s priorities and do their dirty work behind the scenes. Be of no doubt that this important body can succumb to “group-think” and be seduced by the mantra: “you are either with us or against us”. The fact that the government never comments on their operations lends weight to the Media’s gripe that Special Forces are “unaccountable”, but the fact is their use of lethal force has to be approved at the highest level in Whitehall.

I was in Kabul and Helmand in 2012 in my role as Head of the Defence Cultural and Language Capability and saw at first hand how our Afghan interpreters were being treated, especially those working with the Special Forces. Unfortunately, the Independent Inquiry relating to Afghanistan will have to confirm unlawful activity by Special Forces deployed not only from Britain, but also from our Allies as well.

There are two tracks to deal with this. The first is the official enquiry, which will be slow and bureaucratic; the second is the internal lessons identified process, run secretly by the Chief of the General Staff using DSF and someone like the Director of Operational Capability to identify important lessons. These will be implemented rapidly, so that when the official inquiry eventually publishes its report, the Ministry of Defence can look smug and say: “We have already dealt with these issues”.

The second storm about the causes of the Russia-Ukraine war is to me more worrying. Nigel Farage was correct in his summation of why Putin invaded Ukraine. Many commentators, including myself, have for a long time suggested that NATO was playing with fire when it courted Ukraine, so this is not news. Understandably, the government will not wish to say anything that could be interpreted as not supporting Ukraine; however, the dilemma that Farage highlighted will have to be faced eventually. Unless the West is willing to put bodies on the line, this war will drift on with little end in sight because Putin is achieving his aim by occupying large sections of the country within missile range of Moscow. We have to take this seriously and prepare properly, if we wish to deter Putin from further expanding his borders in Europe.

Both sides this week have issued statements that are designed to reassure the public that they are actively seeking peace. The reality, however, is that neither side is willing to compromise on their core demands. Russia will not tolerate NATO in Ukraine and Ukraine will not tolerate Russia eating away at it territorial integrity.

The reasons why both sides took up arms has not fundamentally shifted. Neither has there been any weakening of their economic support. Russia is still trading with more than half the world and receiving hard cash from many countries in Asia and Africa, including China, India and South Africa. Ukraine is still benefiting from the enormous economic support of the USA and the European Union. So, to my mind, the stalemate will last at least until 2025.

The D Day Landings and the Battle for Normandy are hugely symbolic for Britain and other countries that fought against oppression in the Second World War. The courage and bravery of the men who carried out the most complex amphibious operation in the history of conflict is rightly commemorated each year. However, it certainly was not the turning point of the war and nor was it any more “intense” than some of the battles in North Africa and Italy, such as El Alamein and Monte Cassino, so why has this anniversary become such a political event, rivalling Remembrance Sunday and Trooping the Colour for those who “must be seen” to attend it? Three important reasons come immediately to mind.

First, Geography; the battlefields in North Africa, Italy and Asia are difficult to reach and tend to be inaccessible because buildings have been constructed and vistas have changed, whereas the Normandy beaches are relatively unaltered and easy to reach.

Second, the nature of the task; its complexity meant that although the numbers of men who actually fought on D Day and the casualties suffered were less than other battles, many families back home felt they were involved. This is due to the plethora of supporting operations, such as deception, and the training camps and logistics tail that touched dozens of counties from the industrial north to the assembly areas in the south.

Third, the event provides a political opportunity to reiterate the resolve of Allies against authoritarian regimes and this sings to the need to support Ukraine against Russia. However, the political rhetoric we heard last week is not going to deter Putin in his current war because historical commemorations and ceremonial parades are not hard military capabilities. The only language that will alter Putin’s behaviour is the language of the Cold War. What we need are fully recruited regiments, equipped with the latest armoured vehicles that are maintained at scale, with a short notice to move. All military capabilities need to be tested through operational rehearsals, such as the old REFORGER exercises that were run by NATO. Only then will Putin take us seriously and our forbearers’ sacrifices will be honoured.

Omaha Beach