The question I wish to ask the US President after his expletive outburst today is: did the Pentagon warn you about the probable consequences of following Israel’s lead and waging war on the 17th largest country in the World?
I know that ever since the Iraq War, the US military has developed an outstanding Red Teaming capability. This is the art of applying independent, structured critical thinking…from a variety of perspectives, to challenge assumptions and fully explore alternative outcomes, in order to reduce risks and increase opportunities. I led a Red Team for Force Development work in 2011, before deploying to Libya and was given access to the results of a Washington Think Tank’s analysis and the US modelling of a war with Iran. I know how excellent the Fort Leavenworth team is and I am certain they will have learned lessons from Russia’s failure to defeat Ukraine and identified the most predictable outcomes before launching Operation Epic Fury on 28 February.
History has repeatedly shown us that Air Power alone will not win a war and denigrating your opponents as “rats” and “cowards” only serves to stiffen their resolve. So now that Washington has failed to overturn the Iranian regime and win the war in the timeline they set out, what are the ramifications? First, the US military is embroiled in another unwinnable war in the Middle East. Second, due to the impact on World trade, commerce and financial markets, the USA has lost many of its friends and allies. Third, the USA has lost its reputation as Global Leader of the Rules Based World Order and handed China and Russia an enormous boost as a result of their aggression.
Are these unintended consequences, or acceptable collateral in the thinking of President Trump and his cronies? His demeanour this week suggests the former, so perhaps it is time for him to call in the Red Team because he obviously hasn’t listened to them so far!
From A CSIS Briefing Fifteen Years Ago
Rupert Wieloch 