I retain several presentations given to me by the US Center for Strategic and International Studies when I was a member of the Middle East Peace Process Working Group on Arms Control and Security Co-operation at the time of the Arab Spring. Two pictures from these lengthy assessments are of particular interest when considering the current conflict between Israel and Iran. The first is a comment about the consequences of a war between Iran and Israel and the USA. The second is a pictorial layout of the gas and oil fields in the Gulf, which would be vulnerable to attack.
We all understand what has tipped the balance and why Israel has begun a new war in the Middle East. However, these pictures demonstrate that the knowledge about the Iranian nuclear capability was widely understood twenty years ago. They also show what is at stake and why America kept a lid on the potential conflict for the past two decades. By starting this new war, the unpopular Israeli government is gambling on President Trump coming to their assistance and the Sunni Gulf States siding against their Shia neighbour, but this plays straight into the scenario for the start of World War III.
In the meantime, I attended a British Army event this week, when they confirmed that Britain could no longer deploy a meaningful land component to the front. To protect our troops, we must rebuild the structures that ensure individuals are not treated like gun fodder and used to the best of their capabilities because these may be needed sooner rather than later.
Rupert Wieloch 