The violence that has erupted on the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War has reinforced the point I made last week about how conflict can spread if the Permanent Members of the UN are at loggerheads. It reminds me of my talk to the Middle East Peace Process working group on arms control and security before the Arab Spring. We are in the middle of an era of persistent conflict driven by six trends: Globalisation; Climate Change; Poverty Gap; Fragile States; Weapons of Mass Destruction; and uncertain natural resource availability.
The war itself is a classic example of how David approached his fight with Goliath using asymmetric methods, but as with many modern conflicts, there is little distinction between the military and civilian participants.
So where next in this tumultuous year and how will it all end? There are many contested lands in Africa and Asia, but the Balkans remains a tinderbox in Bosnia and Kosovo, so I won’t be surprised if some old grudges are used in these hot-spots by political opportunists before the end of the year. The only solution is for the UN Security Council to reach an accord about Ukraine, but I cannot see that happening soon because there is such a deep ideological divide between the West and the rest.
Rupert Wieloch 