There is something very predictable about what is happening in Ukraine at the moment. The latest attacks by the Russian Army (with support from Cubans and other mercenaries) has been foreseen by many people, as the overwhelming numbers of soldiers and materiel begin to take effect and wear down the gallant defenders.
I always think that Putin likens himself to a Russian Tsar, rather than a Soviet Leader, but his method this year seems to be straight out of the manual that we studied in the Cold War. In a folded aide-memoir, we were told to imagine the approaching Soviet Army as an animal that constantly changes shape. It begins as a tortoise, with a thick outer shell protecting the important body as the head looks out for the enemy. In the deployment phase, it resembles a slither of snakes, which probe for gaps and weaknesses in the enemy positions. Finally in the attack, it is like a bear that growls to hold the enemy’s attention while its paws sweep in from the flanks.
In terms of his long term goals, I do not believe that Putin completely wishes to decimate Kharkiv and turn it into a “Grozny”, but he will do it if he believes it will tip the balance to win the war (and the peace). The short term goal is clearly to push the Russian boundaries further away from Moscow and to create as wide a buffer zone as possible, but there are other objectives, which are discussed in an excellent podcast by distinguished writers, Saul David and Patrick Bishop, that is definitely worth a listen at: https://www.goalhangerpodcasts.com/battleground?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
Rupert Wieloch 