Rupert Wieloch

In many ways, modern war has reverted to old war. The Tsars’ Russian Empire was built by leaning on their neighbours’ walls until they collapsed and then slowly assimilating the populations into the Mother country.

The Ukraine battlefield today is no longer dominated by tanks, but by all-seeing drones loaded with precision munitions and controlled from safe areas behind the front line. The effect has been to shift the balance from manoeuvre to attrition, (as happened in France in 1914). This has had the effect of Russia returning to her old, tried and trusted way of fighting with an extended trench line stretching for hundreds of miles.

In the First World War, it took four years to develop the tank to the level that it could alter the equilibrium in Flanders and allow visionaries to find a way to shorten the war and so reduce casualties. What we need today is a similar breakthrough in technology with a new type of protection, which harnesses the electromagnetic spectrum to repel the drones and allow ground vehicles the freedom to manoeuvre. Could this be a useful task for Elon Musk, now he is no longer welcome in the White House?

A British Mark V Tank Used By White Russians In Archangel

Following in the footsteps of HRH The Prince of Wales, I visited Estonia, which has been part of NATO’s front line with Russia for 21 years. The country formed a deep partnership with the British Army in Afghanistan and I was fortunate to have an outstanding Estonian Colonel as my deputy in Baghdad. He cut his teeth as a young officer in the Red Army, so I learned a lot from him about the way the Russian army works.

Eleven years ago, the threat of invasion from Russia was high, but the deployment of British troops near to Tartu has helped to prevent the same thing that happened to Ukraine. During my visit, the Royal Engineers contingent had their roulement and it was good to see them wearing their uniforms proudly in public.

Inevitably tourist numbers are down, but as a result the capital, Tallinn, with its champagne air and fantastic UNESCO listed Old Town, is not too busy. Very sensibly, the country has played down the eras when it was ruled by Russia, Poland, Sweden and Germany and prefers to celebrate its medieval, Hanseatic heritage, when it was a highly successful, independent Baltic trading port.

There is still a strong Russian influence here (not as much as Lithuania), but there is also plenty of evidence to show where the country’s sympathies now lie. We must not lose sight of the fact that Putin still has plans to invade this country, so we need to keep supporting it.

Stop The War Protest In Tallinn

Film production inevitably changed during the Second World War with governments taking a greater interest in what was portrayed to the public. A typical British example was “In which We Serve” directed by a young David Lean and starring that titan of entertainment, Noel Coward. In Hollywood, American films were lighter and more distracting than their British counterparts, with musicals such as “Anchors Aweigh”, starring Frank Sinatra and Gene Kelly being put forward for Academy Awards.

In the animation world, Walt Disney’s films struggled to make money because he lost the European market. Even Bambi, which premiered in London on 8 August 1942, did not perform as well as hoped and so Walt decided to make propaganda films. His first foray was “Victory Through Air Power”, which was released on 17 July 1943. Many officials were seduced by the theories portrayed in this film, which led to some pretty drastic attacks on places such as Dresden and Hiroshima. However, although Air Power shortened World War II and is still being used today in places such as Ukraine and Gaza, it cannot solve a conflict because decisions are made by people on the ground, not those sitting in armchairs thousands of miles away.

I am looking forward to giving my talk about the end of World War II in Sussex this week. There is so much material, it will be hard to keep focused, but I do wish to dedicate the time to those who paid the ultimate sacrifice, including the last men to be awarded the Victoria Cross and commemorate all those who contributed to the war effort.

There are many lessons from the immediate aftermath of Victory in Europe. The United States and Russia emerged from the war as the two most powerful nations of the globe. The big three (Churchill, Roosevelt and Stalin) had already met at Tehran and Yalta to carve out the new world order and set up the international monetary system and the United Nations. However, by the end of the third UK, USA, USSR conference, held at Potsdam between 17 July and 2 August 1945, neither Churchill nor Roosevelt were leading their countries.

Under Stalin’s dictatorship, there were many victims of Yalta (including the Cossacks) and this reneging of his commitments as much as anything caused the Alliance to break up and the Cold War to begin.

American and Russian Soldiers make friends on the banks of the Elbe at Torgau – 25 April 1945

There was a marked difference this week between the inclusive commemorations marking VE Day in London and the military triumphalism of Putin’s Victory Parade in Moscow. The main focus in London was on the respectful Thanksgiving and Remembrance Service in Westminster Abbey, supported by processions, tea-parties and concerts, involving ordinary people around the country. This contrasted vividly with the Russian march-past of tanks, artillery, rockets and nuclear missiles. One was celebrating peace in Europe, the other was glorifying war.

Having lost most of my friends and relations who served during the War, it was especially enjoyable to catch up with a lady who is 101 years old and served as a FANY (First Aid Nursing Yeomanry). She allowed me to use her husband’s papers for my book Liberating Libya because he served with the Long Range Desert Group and led his regiment into the Battle of El Alamein in 1942. She also had a fascinating time during the War, which is briefly summarised in this week’s Hampshire Chronicle. We had a chuckle about the article, which she said was all wrong (including the spelling of her name). And of course, she pointed out that it was incorrect to write that 8th May was the end of the War because the ferocious fighting in the Far East continued until Japan’s surrender on 14th August.

The first week of May is always time of eager anticipation for a Summer Season filled with friendship and entertainment. This year is different. Earlier in the year, there was a glimmer of hope in the wars in Ukraine, Gaza and Sudan, but as JD Vance said this week the war in Ukraine “is not going to end any time soon”. With Israel calling up its reserves for a new assault and the first attacks on Port Sudan occurring this week, it is no wonder that voters around the World are looking for “safe pairs of hands” to democratically govern their countries.

Global instability and worldwide insecurity confront us like Scylla and Charybdis facing Odysseus on his epic journey home from Troy. For many people in Britain, this is a difficult time and perhaps this is the reason that the Media is making such a fuss about the 80th anniversary of VE Day. However, we have to remember that this is a commemoration rather than a coronation and that although 8th May was a reason for the Allied countries to celebrate, it was not the end of combat. In fact, 208 Commonwealth personnel died on that day in places as far afield as the Balkans, Germany, Czech Republic, Italy, France, Netherlands, Belgium, Gaza, Malaysia, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea and Myanmar, where 14th Army’s intense fighting carried on until August.

The 80th anniversary extravaganza begins on 5 May with a procession to Buckingham Palace similar to the one in which my mother marched 80 years ago. Displays, tea parties, tributes and concerts carry on until Thursday, with the annual Cavalry Memorial Parade in Hyde Park rounding off the spectacle. It is all a bit strange for those of us who served in the Armed Forces and remember the words of Winston Churchill: In war: Resolution, in defeat: Defiance, in victory: Magnanimity, in peace: Good Will.

VE Day Procession 8 May 1945 – Approaching Buckingham Palace

The Sunday Times article about the inadvertent exposure of Special Forces names is a real embarrassment for the Armed Forces and highlights the continuing problem of poor security in the Ministry of Defence. In the past five years, there have been many breaches with over a thousand laptops, mobile phones or hard drives missing due to loss or theft. But allowing the names of SAS soldiers to be accessed by our adversaries on the internet is unforgiveable given our current involvement in the Middle East and the War in Ukraine.

The MoD used to have a much tighter grip on what is published about the Armed Forces. When I wrote my book about the changing face of military operations, it was vetted by several teams in Whitehall and I was asked to change a number of stories. However, when I pointed out that senior civil servants had already revealed the classified details to the Media they relented. In the end, I agreed to change one story about the deployment of Special Forces in Afghanistan after 9/11. Although the information had been published in an Obituary in South Africa, I did not want to interfere with a court case that was still running fifteen years later.

For those who wish to dig into Britain’s Special Forces, there are many open source academic and technical media articles that expose information that the MoD should really keep under its hat. These are not too difficult to find, so I am not surprised if the ST and other newspapers have full files of classified information, which the Government would rather the public did not see.

On the 80th anniversary of VE Day on 8 May, I will be raising funds for the Royal British Legion in London. It is a poignant day because my mother was in the Royal Navy contingent that marched past the King and Queen at Buckingham Palace. She would have been 101 this week and was very proud of her wartime service as a morse operator working on top secret Y work.

Although Easter 1945 was filled with hope for the end of the war, the fighting on the Eastern Front and the Ruhr Valley in Germany was still very grim, with many casualties falling withing site of the end. One of the most poignant was Major John Poston, Field Marshal Montgomery’s ADC who had been with him since before the Battle of El Alamein.

He was killed in a German ambush at Luneberg Heath (where I spent many weeks in the 1980s on reconnaissance manoeuvres) on 21 April 1945. A testament to what this 25 year old Cavalry Old Harrovian did for his country comes from the Field Marshal’s pen: “I trusted him absolutely and he never once failed me…I was completely devoted to him and I feel very sad; something has definitely gone out of my life.” Less than two weeks later, Monty accepted the German surrender from Admiral Doenitz at the palce Posten was killed.

The latest devastating use of Iskander Ballistic Missiles against Ukraine on Palm Sunday is clear proof that President Putin is not changing the strategy that he laid out three years ago in his so-called “Special Operation”.

Since the free people of Ukraine are not giving up the gallant defence of their country and the British and European leaders are remaining steadfast in their “Support from the touch-line”, it remains to be seen what effects the US will have on the War. The US envoy’s clumsy words this week have exposed a worrying lack of understanding and resolve. No previous conflict can be used as an exact peace model for this war, so it is not helpful to compare the current situation to what happened in Germany after World War II.

The application of technology may not have changed the character of war, but it certainly has changed the way modern wars are fought. Cruise missiles, Satellites and Drones, and the use of Mobile Telephones and the Electro Magnetic Spectrum has made it easy for politicians in capital cities to play as armchair generals, but they have equally made it much tougher for the ordinary soldiers in the trenches.

Russian Cruise Missiles

I have read some drastic descriptions of what the past week means for the future, but is this really a moment like the end of the Cold War, when history, according to Francis Fukuyama, ended (the phrase was actually first used by a 19th Century French Philosopher)?

I look at this apparent “End of Globalisation” in three ways. The first is to compare it to other recent economic shocks (Dot-Com Bubble-Burst in 2000; Subprime Mortgage Scandal in 2007 and Covid 19 Lockdown Crash in 2020). After each of these the global market took about three years to rebound, which could be a good benchmark for the Trump Throttle.

The second is to consider whether the Tarriffs will lead to World War III. Although there is a clear connection between Germany’s economic woes in the 1920s and the rise of Hitler, I suspect the imposition of US duty on the rest of the World will not lead to a Global power re-alignment. There have been far worse years, such as 1979, when the World was introduced to Islamic Terrorism and the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan, but nuclear Armageddon was avoided.

The third way to look at this is against the other five Mega-Trends that we defined 24 years ago at the Joint Concept Centre in Shrivenham (Climate Change; Shifting Demographics; Fragile States; Weapons of Mass Destruction and Uncertain Natural Resource Availability). And again, in this case, it seems to me that we are not at the end of the road, but merely travelling along a dang-hard, Rocky Mountain dirt track and therefore should adapt to the ride and make the most of the opportunities that will follow the chaos.