Rupert Wieloch

The violence that has erupted on the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War has reinforced the point I made last week about how conflict can spread if the Permanent Members of the UN are at loggerheads. It reminds me of my talk to the Middle East Peace Process working group on arms control and security before the Arab Spring. We are in the middle of an era of persistent conflict driven by six trends: Globalisation; Climate Change; Poverty Gap; Fragile States; Weapons of Mass Destruction; and uncertain natural resource availability.

The war itself is a classic example of how David approached his fight with Goliath using asymmetric methods, but as with many modern conflicts, there is little distinction between the military and civilian participants.

So where next in this tumultuous year and how will it all end? There are many contested lands in Africa and Asia, but the Balkans remains a tinderbox in Bosnia and Kosovo, so I won’t be surprised if some old grudges are used in these hot-spots by political opportunists before the end of the year. The only solution is for the UN Security Council to reach an accord about Ukraine, but I cannot see that happening soon because there is such a deep ideological divide between the West and the rest.

The sad case of nineteen-year-old Gunner Jaysley Beck has exposed the deep problems that remain at British Army training establishments. Larkhill, where she was based, is essentially the training depot for all artillery training from guns to missiles and radar to drones. The fact that she was harassed by her boss there not only shows how the culture is ingrained in the institution, but also demonstrates the low standard of leadership at the base.

This case is worse than the Rafiq racism at Yorkshire CCC because it led to an unnecessary death. However, there are some similarities in the way it is being handled at the very top and I expect this will be used by the Government to change the culture in the Services by trying to appoint a woman to be the Head of the Army. However, as we have seen in the Metropolitan Police, having a woman at the head of an organisation doesn’t always solve the behavioural problems.

Larkhill Training Base

It is good to hear that the Government is still committed to supporting Ukraine in its fight for independence and that the new Defence Secretary is sending more British troops to bolster the weary Ukrainian army. At its heart, Britain’s allegiance is down to a cultural instinct for fairness and supporting the underdog against bullies. So why are we doing nothing about another scandalous ethnic clear-out on the edge of Europe?

Baku is as much a part of Europe as Kiev. It has hosted the 2015 European games, a European Grand Prix and European soccer finals, but the Government there has been allowed to get away with a military assault similar to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. The disputed area of Nagorno-Karabakh has been contested since the Bolshevik takeover in 1918. Seventy years later, as the Soviet Union collapsed, a bitter war was fought between Armenians and Azerbaijanis, but this did not resolve the issues and after mediation by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe a ceasefire was agreed on 12 May 1994.

The latest conflict intensified partly because the OSCE work, which is co-chaired by France, Russia and the USA, stalled due to the war in Ukraine. This is a clear example of how conflict can spread in a region if the UN Permanent Members are at loggerheads.

It is reported on the BBC that almost 100,000 people have fled from Nagorno-Karabakh after Azerbaijan seized the region last week. Armenia, which is considered to be a developing country, cannot cope with the instability this will cause, so the Caucasus tinder-box is likely to be lit again if the European Union and the United Nations does not take effective action.

Baku – On the Edge of Europe

The call by the Home Office to the MoD asking for armed support to the Metropolitan police this weekend sets a very dangerous precedent in the 21st Century.

Military Aid to Civil Power in mainland Britain has not been used for over a century because our volunteer army has always been very nervous about any role which pitches it against sections of the society from which it draws its recruits.

The Peterloo Massacre in 1819, the Merthyr Riots in 1831 and the Preston Strike in 1842 all proved to be disastrous examples of the British Government using armed troops against the civilian population. They led to the decision not to use armed soldiers to deal with civilian crimes despite many terrible mass shootings and terrorist attacks in the past 50 years. You only have to look at when the army was sent to Northern Ireland in 1969 to see the risks associated with any form of military support to the police.

Senior army officers, serving in the MoD, should have red-flagged this Home Office request as their predecessors did in the past. So is this an example of a major change in military policy, or of a naïve duty officer who did not know his, or her, history?

22 Civilians were killed by the Sherwood Foresters outside the Westgate Hotel in 1839

The first day of the biggest boat festival in Britain was a resounding success with glorious weather and astounding attractions that made me yearn to be at sea.

Apart from the fascinating talks on the Foredeck Stage, my favourite was, without doubt, the three master tall ship Thalassa, which reminded me of my time on the historic Baltic Brig Zebu, sailing around the Bay Islands off Honduras. On my next visit, I will look for a Saint Pierre Dory similar to the one that took fourteen of us to Guanaja to dive among the turtles.

Next Sunday, 24th September, at 3 p.m. I will be giving my talk about the British boats, Royal Navy Prisoners of War and Hampshire Soldiers involved in the Russian Civil War and signing books in Paul and Gina’s excellent Medina Bookshop which is opposite the Bottle Stage.

Those who know Libya and Cyrenaica (North-East Libya) in particular, will not be surprised by the disaster that unfolded when Storm Daniel destroyed the dams and caused the devastation that we are seeing on our screens.

Two hundred years ago, Derna was arguably the most important Ottoman port between Alexandria and Tripoli. As a vital trading post, it was the focus of America’s first overseas foray, when a small band of Marines and mercenaries, supported by the US Frigate, Argus captured the castle. However, when Mussolini ruled Libya, he developed the deep water harbour at Tobruk, which relegated Derna to a lesser role in the country.

Derna’s decline continued through Colonel Gadhafi’s regime, when it was populated by devout families, many of whom were independent of the authoritarian network that existed in Libya. As a result, the area was deprived of the oil-wealth and neglected by administrators. The problems were compounded after 2012, when Islamic State established a strong foothold and failed to complete essential maintenance tasks in the city and its surrounds.

The winter weather on the heights above Derna can be atrocious and the rugged wadi is very difficult to traverse. The soil is rich, but turns into a morass very quickly with torrential rain, which is why relief efforts are being hampered and progress has been so slow. It really does need a co-ordinated humanitarian assistance operation run by the United Nations to rescue the situation.

Thanks to Maher Abdussalam for this photograph

The earthquake in Morocco and Storm Daniel in Libya have brought misery to thousands of people living on the south coast of the Mediterranean Sea. I know both the affected areas and it is a great sadness to see the effects of these natural disasters in places where it is hard to live well.

Both of the calamities have affected widespread areas. In Morocco, the route I took to Marrakesh passes very close to the epicentre, so I know how difficult it is to reach the affected villages. In Libya, all the coastal cities and ports, from Tripoli to Tobruk have been affected but it is isolated Derna that has had the worst of the damage with two broken dams in the Jebel Akhdar causing horrific devastation.

The greatest sadness is that the governments of these regions are very suspicious of outsiders and so vital international humanitarian assistance is not being deployed as rapidly as it might be, so unnecessary lives are being lost. It is time for the United Nations to step up to the mark…

Damage has also been done to the ancient historical sites between Benghazi and Derna.

I am looking forward to giving my talk at the Southampton International Boat Show about some of the British vessels in the Russian Civil War.

At the beginning of the British campaign in 1918, HMS Suffolk was on station in Vladivostok. Her guns were transported almost 5,000 miles by train to Perm where they were fitted to a barge and a tug and operated by Royal Navy personnel on the River Kama. In providing fire support against the Red Army, they set an unbroken record for operating furthest away from their ship. These crews were commanded by a young Royal Marine captain, who was awarded the DSO for his leadership and can be seen in the photograph below with the White Russian Navy’s commanders. During the talk, I will describe their close shave when they were almost captured and explain why they were treated scandalously by the British Consul.

Many other British merchant vessels and passenger ships were involved in the campaign and I will describe the intriguing journeys of three favourite workhorses that sailed the “Seven Seas”, concluding with the celebrated return of the Hampshire Regiment to Southampton aboard the HMT Tunisian in December 1919.

I was fortunate to meet and brief the excellent Tom King when he was Secretary of State for Defence in 1990, shortly before the Gulf War. Since then I have met a further five of the incumbents in briefings about military operations. Their approach was very much dependent on their background. For example, I remember when we told Geoff Hoon that we had removed one of the options in the response to 9/11, but he replied: “Leave it in, I am a lawyer and I will decide…”.

We have been very fortunate with Ben Wallace, who has represented the Armed Forces very well in his four years at the helm. However, it has to be said that despite the war in Ukraine, it has been a woeful period of decline that has seen the Army decimated by financial cuts and embarrassed by the Government’s humiliating withdrawal from Afghanistan. Britain’s allies and adversaries have watched as Defence capability that was originally funded in support of British Foreign Policy has been misused for domestic issues (pandemic assistance, ceremonial parades, flood relief, etc.), while operational standards have declined dramatically.

So what is the big issue for The Right Honourable Grant Shapps? In a word…Money. It is unprecedented that both the Head of the Army and the Secretary of Defence resigned because the Treasury squeezed the budget with their technique of “divide and rule” between the three Services. I suspect the new Defence Secretary has been placed in the MoD for one purpose and it is not to fight for the Armed Forces funding, but no doubt we will see when the results of the next Planning Round are announced.

One of the best ever Defence Secretaries in Cyprus before the Gulf War

During my research about the British involvement in the Russian Civil War, I discovered several unsolved cases of Soviet officials who were mysteriously killed in what appeared to be arranged accidents.

One such example was the case of Solomon Mogilevsky. He met Lenin in Switzerland and joined the Bolshevik cause before becoming involved in the 1917 October Revolution. After he became a senior member of the Secret Police (Tcheka), he interrogated Francis McCullagh over Easter 1919 and then became head of the Soviet foreign intelligence service from 1921 to 1922. His next posting was Head of the Caucasian secret police when he was awarded the Order of the Red Banner for his role in suppressing an uprising in Georgia.

Mogilevsky died in an unsolved air crash near Tiflis in 1925. The cause of the crash was never determined despite three commissions and no-one alive knows whether it was arranged on behalf of Stalin, or for some other reason. At this stage, the crash appears to be strikingly similar to the air crash this week that killed Yevgeny Prigozhin after he fell out of favour with the Russian President Vladimir Putin.

I am not sure whether this is history repeating itself, or merely rhyming (as Mark Twain would have it), but you can read about the Tcheka’s terrifying techniques and Mogilevsky’s interrogation of Francis McCullagh in Part 2 of Churchill’s Abandoned Prisoners.

Francis McCullagh in Russia