Much of the training for our soldiers is about helping them to see through the “Fog of War”. This term was developed in the 19th century to describe the uncertainty on the battlefield i.e. having to make decisions with sub-optimal information. For example, late on the 18th June 1815 at Waterloo, the clouds of smoke from artillery and the folds in the ground prevented the generals on both sides from seeing who was winning the hand-to-hand combat.
In the 21st century, media and politicians cannot deal with uncertainty because it makes them look unprofessional. In the case of military operations, they pretend that surveillance systems, Air Power and precision weapons are the answer and gloss over the real issue, which is high-intensity training. It is possible to see through the fog of war, if you spend hours and hours on exercise (my rule of thumb was to spend one third of a year manouvering in the field in order to reach a standard where you can intuitively make the right decisions).
In Ukraine, last week, thick fog enabled Russian troops to move further into the key strategic city of Pokrovsk. For several days, the West’s surveillance drones were ineffective because visibility was so poor. This allowed Russian infiltration operations to succeed because we have become too dependent on technology and avoided putting boots on the ground. If we wish to prevent Putin from winning this war, we will need to change our strategy soon.
19th Century Fog of War
Rupert Wieloch 