To many people, Tomahawk missiles are a game-changer that could end the war in Ukraine overnight. However, my experience of their use in wars in the Balkans, Middle East and Africa is that they were less important than the armoured brigades and ground troops that were deployed to the battlefield by NATO and other Coalitions. I watched several of Tomahawks fly over my base in Maglaj on their way to Banja Luka on 10 September 1985, but it was the Challenger 2 tanks that were the real game-changers during Operation Deliberate Force.
Looking at the war in Ukraine, the Pentagon has to weigh-up whether the deployment of Tomahawks would deter further Russian aggression, or act as provocation. On the one side, we know that Putin and his acolytes believe Ukraine is their “property” and are unwilling to see it join NATO. On the other side, Ukraine has done a magnificent job of defending its independence and has hurt Russia recently with its clever strategy and tactics.
Trump is treading a fine balance between the two sides. He clearly does not wish to start World War III, but at the same time he wishes to be seen as a peacemaker and knows that Putin only respects strength. So what chance of a ceasefire before the end of the year? My view is that if there is a pause, it will more than likely be due to the winter weather than military diplomacy, but that in itself will be of benefit to ordinary citizens living with the constant fear of attacks from the Air. So, here’s hoping…
Rupert Wieloch 