This has been the most important week of the year for Ukraine. After months of bluster and stagnation on the front line, it is now a very dangerous moment in the war for three reasons.
The air attack on the main government building in the capital and the assassination of Andriy Parubiy are symbolic of Russia’s intention to continue with their strategy of attrition. The support from China, India and North Korea, which comprise about 35% of the world’s population (2.8 Billion people), has made a mockery of the West’s attempts to squeeze Russia economically. The failure of the USA to back President Zelensky to the hilt has encouraged President Putin to continue with his current military campaign and threaten any country that sends peacekeepers to Ukraine.
Playing to his audience in Vladivostok, Putin has reminded us that for him nothing has changed since he began the war and that he is winning the diplomatic, economic, military and information battles. I have said many times that Russia is playing a long game in Ukraine and is happy that the interim objective of Ukraine not becoming a member of NATO is being achieved. The situation reminds me of Bismark’s famous quote about the Balkans not being worth the healthy bones of a single Pomeranian soldier – I do not see any of the current European or American leaders committing troops on the ground this year.
The key question now is whether Ukraine can manage through the winter without land reinforcements from NATO. Reading about why the Ukrainian flag has the same colours as Sweden and how they fought in previous wars encourages me to think they will not give up, but they do need a game-changer to rebalance the equation. NATO needs to step up to the plate.
Rupert Wieloch 