The ideas around Hybrid Warfare developed from the Israeli war with Hezbollah in 2006, when 120 IDF soldiers were killed in action over a 34 day period. The form this threat took was like a chameleon because the belligerents adapted their tactics, exploiting all modes of warfare simultaneously; including: conventional weapons, irregular tactics, criminality and advanced technology to destabilise an existing order.
The current war between Israel and Iran has quickly moved from a limited operation to a hybrid war of survival. It may be that Israel’s aims are achieved in the same way that Colonel Qaddafi was overthrown in 2011 (although this took much longer than NATO anticipated). However, Iran is nothing like Libya (the population comprises 90 million Shia compared with only 7 million Sunni in Libya) and there is no UN Security Council Resolution, or NATO agreement for Israel’s attacks.
The consequences of this war are difficult to predict, but from my experience of living on the other side of the Tigris to Sadr City for six months and clearing the mess after the frequent rocket and missile attacks, the Shia assassinated leaders will be hailed as martyrs and their replacements will look for asymmetric ways to attack their enemies, using the principle of “an eye for an eye”. I would expect revenge attacks to occur using some of the many hand-held, surface to air missiles that are unaccounted for around the world.
The two-week pause that Trump has announced will no doubt be filled with behind-the-scenes meetings, counting of friends and allies, modelling of options and evidence-building to justify US involvement. The big worry for Washington remains how to protect the oil and gas fields in the Gulf and the big concern for Britain is whether to support the USA, or not.
Is this their Suez moment?
A Coalition on the Tigris
Rupert Wieloch 