I have read some drastic descriptions of what the past week means for the future, but is this really a moment like the end of the Cold War, when history, according to Francis Fukuyama, ended (the phrase was actually first used by a 19th Century French Philosopher)?
I look at this apparent “End of Globalisation” in three ways. The first is to compare it to other recent economic shocks (Dot-Com Bubble-Burst in 2000; Subprime Mortgage Scandal in 2007 and Covid 19 Lockdown Crash in 2020). After each of these the global market took about three years to rebound, which could be a good benchmark for the Trump Throttle.
The second is to consider whether the Tarriffs will lead to World War III. Although there is a clear connection between Germany’s economic woes in the 1920s and the rise of Hitler, I suspect the imposition of US duty on the rest of the World will not lead to a Global power re-alignment. There have been far worse years, such as 1979, when the World was introduced to Islamic Terrorism and the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan, but nuclear Armageddon was avoided.
The third way to look at this is against the other five Mega-Trends that we defined 24 years ago at the Joint Concept Centre in Shrivenham (Climate Change; Shifting Demographics; Fragile States; Weapons of Mass Destruction and Uncertain Natural Resource Availability). And again, in this case, it seems to me that we are not at the end of the road, but merely travelling along a dang-hard, Rocky Mountain dirt track and therefore should adapt to the ride and make the most of the opportunities that will follow the chaos.
Rupert Wieloch 