When President Trump negotiated a US withdrawal agreement from Afghanistan five years ago, it precipitated a Taliban takeover and chaotic scenes across the country 18 months later. After his cosy with President Putin and spat with President Zelensky this week, will history repeat itself in Europe?
The first thing to say is that France and the United Kingdom are looking as isolated at the United Nations as they did during the Suez crisis. The difference though is very stark with Suez marking the end of European Imperialism, whereas the current crisis leading potentially to the end of European Democracy.
There are plenty of 21st century precedents of US conflict withdrawal, including Bosnia in 2004 and Baghdad in 2010. The former led to an EU Mission, which was guaranteed by NATO Over The Horizon Forces. The latter left a void, which allowed Islamic State to develop as an international force and in turn, led to ten more years of war. The abandonment of Syria by President Obama in 2013 did not end well either.
Untying US commitments to Ukraine (and Eastern Europe) will not be easy. It is certainly possible for Trump to pull the plug on the troops, arms, missiles and connected surveillance systems that are based in the former Warsaw Pact countries, which are now part of NATO. But ultimately, would that solve his economic problems at home, or give him Allies to do what Washington wants to do in the Middle East and Persia?
Happier Days For NATO Allies
Rupert Wieloch 