As we approach the anniversary of Putin’s “special operation”, there will be much wringing of hands in Western Capitals and no doubt a Trump “Bizentrecky”. However, we must always remember that the true start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was 2014, not 2022. That said the span and intensity of fighting increased significantly three years ago; with everything from traditional trench warfare to modern drone attacks and Special Forces operations leading to the tragic milestone of a million casualties.
Despite Donald Trump’s reassurance, we are as far away from peace in Eastern Europe as we have ever been. The Russian Army, supported by anti-American allies such as North Korea, has made steady progress during the winter months. Putin has solved the two challenges he faced of economic sanctions and ageing demographics, so it is likely that he will continue to take more Ukrainian land this year – unless the balance of power shifts with a serious NATO intervention.
However, the quandary for the West remains the same as it was three years ago. If the war continues, Russia will continue to slowly gain more land, but if a peace is agreed that allows Putin to keep the Crimea and so-called republics of Donetsk and Luhansk, this will reward the aggressor and punish the victim. The bottom line is that there is little appetite (and no votes) in the high-tech, social-media influencing Western world for putting “boots on the ground” and risking nuclear Armageddon. So all that will be done is to send more truck-loads of weapons, ammunition and humanitarian assistance, but this will only delay the inevitable…
Russian Artillery Used in Ukraine
Rupert Wieloch 