Month: February 2025

One of the illusions that political leaders attempt with their populations is to try and make people believe the God of War can be controlled. However, in my experience, once Mars has been unleashed, it is not possible to corral him until the innate energy of conflict has been spent. It is like striving to contain a hurricane in a box.

It’s also true that in this day and age, the war lords on the front line (and their henchmen) take perverse pride in controlling the freedom of movement in their zones and ignoring their own political masters. On the third anniversary of Putin’s so-called Special Military Operation (SMO), there is little sign of Russian withdrawal or Ukrainian defeatism, so despite all the political hype in the Capital Cities of Europe and America, we are no closer to peace in Ukraine than we were a week ago.

On Sky News, I was asked about a possible Peacekeeping operation in Ukraine, but people seem to forget that this type of operation needs an international mandate from the United Nations to be legal and I do not see the Security Council, as it is currently formed, agreeing any Resolution in the near future. That is not to say that we shouldn’t prepare our troops for such an undertaking because it would need a highly trained force (at least nine months) to be capable for such a mission.

So what are we left with on the third anniversary of the SMO? A deep sense of sympathy for the people of Ukraine and especially those who have lost family and those currently serving, under fire, on the Front Line. A moment to pause and reflect.

The political statements by US, EU and UK leaders this week were a gift to Chess-Master Putin and an acknowledgement of what I wrote in my last posting. Sure enough, Trump delivered his “Bizarre-eccentricity”, which caught the World by surprise. Except that it shouldn’t have because he has been singing from the same songsheet for ten years. He believes European countries are not pulling their weight in matters of Defence (a fair criticism); he admires the way Putin turned Russia around from the failed state of the 1990s into a global powerhouse; and he cares as little about the territorial integrity of Ukraine as he does about the right of Palestinians to live in Gaza. So will his rapprochment with the Russian President lead to Peace In Our Time, or will it lead to a European Union force deploying boots on the ground in Ukraine?

Despite the predicament that Ukraine finds itself in after three hard years, I do not believe that her army will capitulate like Syria’s did in December last year. However, if the US withdraws its military assistance, it is only a matter of time before the Russian Army breaks through the front line. In the short term, I do not see the EU having the capabilities to replace the USA or even to deploy an effective Peace Support Operation because they always place ridiculous caveats on commanders when it comes to casualties.

I have written before about what Putin wants from this war, which above all is to end NATO’s encroachment of Russia. With Finland and Sweden joining NATO in 2023 and 2024, it looked as if he had failed in this objective, but if he persuades Trump to cut the lifeblood to the 75 year-old pensioner, he will have achieved more than any of his Soviet predecessors. The stakes are really high because so many European countries have run down their Armed Forces and relegated their military to Cattle Class. As Kipling wrote: For it’s Tommy this, an’ Tommy that, an’ Chuck him out, the brute!” But it’s “Saviour of ‘is country” when the guns begin to shoot…

Tommy Saving His Country

As we approach the anniversary of Putin’s “special operation”, there will be much wringing of hands in Western Capitals and no doubt a Trump “Bizentrecky”. However, we must always remember that the true start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was 2014, not 2022. That said the span and intensity of fighting increased significantly three years ago; with everything from traditional trench warfare to modern drone attacks and Special Forces operations leading to the tragic milestone of a million casualties.

Despite Donald Trump’s reassurance, we are as far away from peace in Eastern Europe as we have ever been. The Russian Army, supported by anti-American allies such as North Korea, has made steady progress during the winter months. Putin has solved the two challenges he faced of economic sanctions and ageing demographics, so it is likely that he will continue to take more Ukrainian land this year – unless the balance of power shifts with a serious NATO intervention.

However, the quandary for the West remains the same as it was three years ago. If the war continues, Russia will continue to slowly gain more land, but if a peace is agreed that allows Putin to keep the Crimea and so-called republics of Donetsk and Luhansk, this will reward the aggressor and punish the victim. The bottom line is that there is little appetite (and no votes) in the high-tech, social-media influencing Western world for putting “boots on the ground” and risking nuclear Armageddon. So all that will be done is to send more truck-loads of weapons, ammunition and humanitarian assistance, but this will only delay the inevitable…

Russian Artillery Used in Ukraine

Before Russia lost its war with Japan and expanded its interests in the Balkans, it was aggressively attempting to assimilate its neighbours into its Empire. Although it succeeded in the Baltic countries and Poland, it was unsuccessful in Finland, despite the efforts of the Governor General, Nikolay Bobrikov, to fully integrate Suomi through the February Manifesto of 1899.

The history of how Finland resisted Russian aggression over many years and eventually gained and held onto its independence is a salutary lesson, which we would do well to remember as we approach the third anniversary of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

Blackwood’s article in July 1899 (the year it published Heart of Darkness), epitomised the role of free British press in exposing the truth behind dictatorial regimes, which used secret police to quell public unrest. This pivotal role continues today through organisations such as The Frontline Club in London, which is showing Dancing with the Russian Bear later this month. This is a critical insight into the question why the West has misread Putin and definitely worth watching.

Moscow May Parade