Month: August 2024

Ukraine’s high risk strategy of advancing into Russia, using NATO tanks, has allowed Putin to make gains in the Donetsk region. The Russian Army’s target is Pokrovsk, a railway town similar to Swindon, that had a tragic history in the 20th century. It was overrun several times by the White Army and Red Army during the Russian Civil War. Its people suffered horrifically during the 1930s Holodomor and Great Purge. And it was the scene of fierce fighting in World War II with thousands of residents killed in a massacre by Axis forces, before a terrible retribution by the Red Army.

The forced evacuation of Ukrainian civilians and clearance of anything useful to the enemy that is taking place this week harks back to those dark days. This is the way Russia has dealt with invading forces for centuries and it has proven to be highly successful as Napoleon found in 1812. There are less than two months before the Russian winter descends on the battlefields and makes it difficult to manoeuvre. The big question is whether a decisive blow will be struck by either side, but my guess is that the cold weather will be the only winner in 2024.

A Sketch Drawn During the French Withdrawal from Moscow in 1812

It doesn’t surprise me that the Media used an image of a collapsed bridge as the sign of war in Russia this week.

There are about 100,000 rivers in Russia, including the Volga, which is the longest in Europe. The country also has nearly three million lakes, including Baikal, which holds more water than any other on the planet. The bridges that cross Russian waterways are vital pieces of transport infrastructure that in war, are needed to supply front line troops with ammunition, food, spare parts and equipment. They can also form the forward edge of the battle lines as their embankments can offer good defensive positions and wide fields of view.

The well-known story of A Bridge Too Far is a fine example of the importance of possessing and preserving river crossings in mobile warfare. Reserve demolitions are very complicated operations and if the commander fails to complete his task, he can expect to be court-martialled (and in the case of Germany in World War II, executed).

To place the importance of Russian bridges in context, the Satnav route from Moscow to Irkutsk in 2011, set out a route over a bridge that crossed the mighty Kama river, which was closed. This meant a diversion of several hours and over 100 miles that caused delay and uncertainty to the journey. The opposing forces in Kursk will face this sort of disruption after the destruction of the bridge over the Seym this week.

The destruction of bridges was widespread during the Russian civil-war, as the 1919 photo below shows; and this is why the image used by the Media this week does not surprise me.

At the beginning of June, I presciently posted about the possibility of riots and the similarities with the situation in England in 1830. Unfortunately, my warning was not heeded and this week, we have seen an ugly reminder of what lies under the surface in society.

The five reasons for the riots, which echo those of 1830, are: climate uncertainty; cost of living crisis; technology alienation; immigration; and an out of touch political elite. Sadly, any one of these can act as a trigger for public disturbances in the current environment.

The reaction by the new government is also similar to the Earl Grey’s government in 1830 – use the judiciary to deter further unrest. In the case of the Swing Riots, the government rapidly assembled a Grand Assize in Winchester, executed a couple of rioters and transported the leaders of the movement to Australia. Lord John Russell eventually pardoned these men in 1836 and some, like Joseph Mason, returned to their families in England, but the deterrence did not last too long because the Chartist movement took up the reins of the 1830 radicals and stirred up more trouble in the following decade.

My new book, Where East Meets West, includes a section about the 1830 disturbances, which due to William Cobbett’s energetic correspondent, Enos Diddams, focused on the Dever Valley. It is a celebration of nature’s gifts in this part of Hampshire, set against the wider historic events in Britain and the World. With Forewords by HM Lord Lieutenant and the BBC series director of Blue Planet and an After word by a renowned Times journalist, it links to the University of Winchester’s English Project, which is building to the bicentenary commemoration of the Swing Riots and Grand Assize. The book will be available in September, from P&G Wells, or please DM for advance copies.

In December 2022, I wrote about a US prisoner swap with Russia, highlighting the history of Prisoner Exchanges, since the first treaty between the West and Soviet Russia signed in February 1920.

I am so pleased for Evan Gershkovich and the other prisoners released from jails in Russia. His trumped up charges were in direct contrast to the heinous crimes of Vadim Krasikov, who was serving a life-sentence in Germany for carrying out an assassination in Berlin. However, given the situation in Ukraine and the Middle East, we cannot be too moralistic about the reasons for imprisonment, but merely thankful that these men, women and children have been freed from unfair incarceration.

Unfortunately, their anguish is not yet over because the process of debriefing by the CIA and other intelligence agencies will be a long and stressful. Evan has already received a rapturous welcome back by the Wall Street Journal, and I really hope that he is able to put the trauma behind him and return to his writing, like Francis McCullagh and Margueritte Harrison who suffered a similar ordeal one hundred years ago.

Francis McCullagh and Margueritte Harrison – Irish and American Journalists imprisoned in Moscow in 1920