Month: June 2024

Two media storms of interest this week – the Special Forces Saga and the Farage Non-Revelation.

The Director of Special Forces (DSF) has a unique position in Government. He controls what in other countries are known as the Republican Guard i.e. an elite force that is dedicated to serve the National Security Council’s priorities and do their dirty work behind the scenes. Be of no doubt that this important body can succumb to “group-think” and be seduced by the mantra: “you are either with us or against us”. The fact that the government never comments on their operations lends weight to the Media’s gripe that Special Forces are “unaccountable”, but the fact is their use of lethal force has to be approved at the highest level in Whitehall.

I was in Kabul and Helmand in 2012 in my role as Head of the Defence Cultural and Language Capability and saw at first hand how our Afghan interpreters were being treated, especially those working with the Special Forces. Unfortunately, the Independent Inquiry relating to Afghanistan will have to confirm unlawful activity by Special Forces deployed not only from Britain, but also from our Allies as well.

There are two tracks to deal with this. The first is the official enquiry, which will be slow and bureaucratic; the second is the internal lessons identified process, run secretly by the Chief of the General Staff using DSF and someone like the Director of Operational Capability to identify important lessons. These will be implemented rapidly, so that when the official inquiry eventually publishes its report, the Ministry of Defence can look smug and say: “We have already dealt with these issues”.

The second storm about the causes of the Russia-Ukraine war is to me more worrying. Nigel Farage was correct in his summation of why Putin invaded Ukraine. Many commentators, including myself, have for a long time suggested that NATO was playing with fire when it courted Ukraine, so this is not news. Understandably, the government will not wish to say anything that could be interpreted as not supporting Ukraine; however, the dilemma that Farage highlighted will have to be faced eventually. Unless the West is willing to put bodies on the line, this war will drift on with little end in sight because Putin is achieving his aim by occupying large sections of the country within missile range of Moscow. We have to take this seriously and prepare properly, if we wish to deter Putin from further expanding his borders in Europe.

Both sides this week have issued statements that are designed to reassure the public that they are actively seeking peace. The reality, however, is that neither side is willing to compromise on their core demands. Russia will not tolerate NATO in Ukraine and Ukraine will not tolerate Russia eating away at it territorial integrity.

The reasons why both sides took up arms has not fundamentally shifted. Neither has there been any weakening of their economic support. Russia is still trading with more than half the world and receiving hard cash from many countries in Asia and Africa, including China, India and South Africa. Ukraine is still benefiting from the enormous economic support of the USA and the European Union. So, to my mind, the stalemate will last at least until 2025.

The D Day Landings and the Battle for Normandy are hugely symbolic for Britain and other countries that fought against oppression in the Second World War. The courage and bravery of the men who carried out the most complex amphibious operation in the history of conflict is rightly commemorated each year. However, it certainly was not the turning point of the war and nor was it any more “intense” than some of the battles in North Africa and Italy, such as El Alamein and Monte Cassino, so why has this anniversary become such a political event, rivalling Remembrance Sunday and Trooping the Colour for those who “must be seen” to attend it? Three important reasons come immediately to mind.

First, Geography; the battlefields in North Africa, Italy and Asia are difficult to reach and tend to be inaccessible because buildings have been constructed and vistas have changed, whereas the Normandy beaches are relatively unaltered and easy to reach.

Second, the nature of the task; its complexity meant that although the numbers of men who actually fought on D Day and the casualties suffered were less than other battles, many families back home felt they were involved. This is due to the plethora of supporting operations, such as deception, and the training camps and logistics tail that touched dozens of counties from the industrial north to the assembly areas in the south.

Third, the event provides a political opportunity to reiterate the resolve of Allies against authoritarian regimes and this sings to the need to support Ukraine against Russia. However, the political rhetoric we heard last week is not going to deter Putin in his current war because historical commemorations and ceremonial parades are not hard military capabilities. The only language that will alter Putin’s behaviour is the language of the Cold War. What we need are fully recruited regiments, equipped with the latest armoured vehicles that are maintained at scale, with a short notice to move. All military capabilities need to be tested through operational rehearsals, such as the old REFORGER exercises that were run by NATO. Only then will Putin take us seriously and our forbearers’ sacrifices will be honoured.

Omaha Beach

I gave a talk today about the Swing Riots in 1830 and it struck me how similar the country is now to those former times.

In the first place, the climate was changing drastically with extreme events occurring on an increasing basis. This resulted in a disastrous harvest in 1829 and another meagre one a year later. There were regular “hurricanes” during the winter and one diarist recorded on 3 April that: “It was so cold to-day that cartloads of ice were brought in.”, but four days later “It was so hot by day as to be quite overpowering ; and so warm at night that one could scarcely bear any clothes, beyond the sheet, over one in bed.”

Secondly, there was something akin to the current cost of living crisis. Farm labourers earned eight shillings a week (40 pence), which left them with nothing after their rent and food was paid. Their clothes were in shreds and there were no treats for their children.

Thirdly, technology was putting people out of work. For example, the introduction of threshing machines meant that many families found no work in the winter months.

Fourthly, there was a sense that the political elite were out of touch and that ordinary people had no say in the decisions that affected them. This was particularly the case in the countryside where changes such as “Enclosure” were restricting the traditional freedoms and rights of ordinary folk.

There were many protest movements, which inconvenienced ordinary people, who were going about their daily business. Some of these turned ugly and were known as the Swing Riots.

And immigration from Europe was at its peak with the French and Belgium revolutions increasing this flow of refugees and displaced people. With a new king (William IV) and a national election that was hotly contested, there was a real worry about revolution being imported from abroad.

The good news was that within a decade, most of these ills had been resolved and the revitalised country embarked on a period of tremendous growth and prosperity.

The question is – Will history repeat itself?