The Public Accounts Committee and National Audit Office are, to my mind, the most important voices of reason when it comes to assessing Government policy and decision making. So when the PAC suggested, after the Budget this week, that the government does not have a credible plan to fund the MoD and pointed to a black hole in defence spending, we should take notice because the lives of our soldiers, sailors and air personnel are at stake.
But what was not clear was whether the chairwoman of the cross-party PAC was blaming the government, or the MoD. Most of the programmed money for the Armed Forces is allocated to Defence Equipment, but a large chunk is spent on infrastructure, information technology and training individuals and formations. Capability, which is what the tax-payer funds each year, is not just about ships, aircraft, tanks and missiles; it also includes the complex concept of readiness, i.e. what do we have in the locker for various scenarios with extended timelines. This concept is based on the UK’s secret Defence Planning Assumptions.
Sadly, these assumptions are flawed in several ways. For example, there is the forlorn hope that NATO Allies will fill British gaps if the balloon goes up. Other fallacies include the idea that reserves will come to the rescue of regular formations and that Defence Industry can ramp-up supply overnight. But perhaps the most deluded assumption can be summarised as “it will be over by Christmas”. One thing the wars in Ukraine, Afghanistan and Gaza have demonstrated is that modern wars need long term commitment and to succeed, you have to think beyond the day after tomorrow.
Combined Services Planning Team – Thinking Beyond Tomorrow
Rupert Wieloch 