The mayhem caused by Wagner’s so-called mutiny has raised hopes that there might soon be an end to the Russian war with Ukraine. To my mind, this is highly unlikely because Wagner offers no viable political alternative and could not possibly run a country like Russia. The simple facts are that there are 11 time zones (the world has 24), more than 100 languages and over 150 ethnic groups from Russians to Kamchadals.
If President Putin were to step down now, he probably would be replaced by a like-minded, hard-liner, who believes NATO should not get its hands on Ukraine and if the current central government collapses, Armageddon would soon follow. It is remarkably similar to the war fought in Ukraine in 1920, when General Wrangel won military victories, but failed to solve the political needs of the people. What is really needed in 2023 is a negotiated treaty with an impartial peacekeeping force deployed to monitor the confrontation zones.
Twenty years ago, the British government was so worried about the consequences of a collapse in the Moscow government and what would happen to the nuclear arsenal if the country imploded, that it actively supported President Putin in his efforts to strengthen the central government. This policy still has some bearing today and I used it as evidence in a public debate with Peter Hitchens, before the pandemic, that you can watch below.
Rupert Wieloch 